According to a report by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) Project violence along the de-facto border in Kashmir is likely to continue to increase as India and Pakistan are unlikely to make efforts to resolve the conflict bilaterally in the near future.
The report said there could be a surge in the activity of domestic and foreign militants in Kashmir because of “policy shifts” after Aug. 5, 2019, when India stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its autonomous status and divided it into two centrally ruled territories.
“Though the rise in militancy is attributed to Pakistan-based jihadi groups, disillusionment and anger caused by [India’s move on] Aug. 5 has enabled both domestic and foreign [militant] groups to recruit Kashmiris,” the report said.
The ACLED report said that in 2020, India focused on deflecting opportunities for negotiation and tightening control of Kashmir while promoting pro-Indian politics in the region. At the same time, its forces reportedly used the coronavirus lockdown to strengthen intelligence gathering and to intensify counter-militancy operations.
“Pakistan responded by continuously casting doubt on the bilateral cease-fire agreement with India by highlighting Indian violations and human rights abuses in Kashmir at international diplomatic forums as well as inciting violence near the Line of Control,” it said.
The report said that the bilateral attempts at resolving the Kashmir conflict remain unlikely in the near future with both India and Pakistan adopting non-cooperative militarized strategies.