Budgam by-poll: Numbers, cadre, and legacy-Who will come out on top?

October 7, 2025 by News Desk

Political circles in central Kashmir’s Budgam district have begun to stir again as the stage sets for a high-stakes by-election, one that could redefine local loyalties and re-establish the National Conference’s traditional hold over one of its strongest bastions.

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The seat fell vacant after Omar Abdullah, who had won from both Ganderbal and Budgam in the 2024 Assembly elections, opted to retain his ancestral constituency, leaving Budgam open for a by-poll. In the 2024 contest, Abdullah polled 36,010 votes (54.52 %), defeating PDP’s Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi, who secured 17,525 votes (26.53 %). The voter turnout stood at 52.27 %, one of the highest in central Kashmir.

The notification for the by-polls will be issued on October 13, 2025 and the last date of filing of nominations will be October 20, 2025 while the scrutiny of the nomination papers will be held on October 22 and the last date for the withdrawal of candidatures has been fixed as October 24.

Party sources confirmed to The Kashmiriyat that “internal deliberations are in advanced stages” and that Budgam will see a “multi-layered contest shaped by community loyalties and cadre strength rather than social-media trends.”

Within the National Conference, two names are currently being discussed, Aga Mehmood and Nasir Aslam Wani. However, several senior party functionaries privately admit that the “momentum and mood” within the cadre appears to be shifting toward Aga Mehmood, a Shia leader known for his grassroots work and community outreach in Budgam.

“Aga Mehmood commands a distinct following among the Shia population, particularly in areas like Beerwah and adjoining Budgam belts. His supporters had quietly backed Omar Abdullah in 2024, and this base remains intact,” one NC insider told The Kashmiriyat, adding that “he combines religious respect with political experience, something Budgam voters traditionally respond to.”

Mehmood, who has long been associated with the National Conference’s central Kashmir leadership, is also among the names being discussed for Rajya Sabha nominations alongside Chowdhary Ramzan, Sajad Kichloo from Chenab, and Shammi Oberoi.

The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is expected to retain Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi, cousin of NC’s Aga Ruhullah Mehdi, as its candidate. Muntazir, son of religious leader Aga Syed Hasan Al-Moosavi, had performed reasonably well in the 2024 Assembly election despite PDP’s overall decline.

the JKNC will likely be seeking the support of Aga Ruhullah Mehdi, and his response will be one of the key factors to watch in this election, given his ongoing rivalry with the party. Aga Ruhullah’s influence spans Palar, Kakan Maran, Gareind, and other adjoining Shia-majority areas. Yet, during the last Assembly elections, Aga Muntazir was able to cut significantly into that vote bank, leveraging his family’s strong religious standing, which continues to remain a decisive factor.

A senior PDP functionary from Budgam told The Kashmiriyat that “Muntazir’s base has expanded, particularly among younger Shia voters who see him as a bridge between tradition and modern politics.” However, he admitted that the PDP’s organizational machinery remains weak, which could limit its ability to convert popularity into votes. “Aga Muntazir may be a decisive factor, however, the alliance between Jamaat-e-Islami backed candidates and Sajad Lone may cut into his votes, if they field a candidate. The Ansari family has a a base too in the area and Imran Reza is capable of shifting his entire vote bank to Sajad Lone-led People’s Conference,” he said.

Former separatist leader Sarjan Barkati has hinted at entering the fray, but political analysts believe his impact will remain largely symbolic. “Barkati commands emotional appeal in pockets of south Kashmir, but Budgam’s electorate is structurally different, disciplined and cadre-driven,” a political researcher told The Kashmiriyat.

Observers believe that while figures like Barkati may capture media attention, they are unlikely to shift the arithmetic on the ground, where NC’s cadre network remains unmatched.

Sources within NC argue that while social media platforms may amplify anti-establishment sentiment, “electoral politics in Kashmir doesn’t work on noise, it works on numbers and cadre.”

Speaking to The Kashmiriyat, a senior election observer said, “Sheikh Abdullah’s party still has active supporters in every constituency, families who’ve voted NC for generations. The party has never controlled public discourse, nor tried to since 1975, but it has always had the numbers. Only when boycotts depress our turnout does the opposition gain temporary ground.”

The by-poll also carries symbolic weight. During the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when Omar Abdullah contested from Baramulla, Budgam and Pattan were the only two Assembly segments where he led, even as Engineer Rashid eventually defeated him. That performance reinforced Budgam’s reputation as one of NC’s strongest bastions and a district that consistently resists larger anti-establishment waves.

Political analysts believe that the cadre structure built by NC since the 1970s, combined with its legacy narrative and identifiable local leaders like Aga Mehmood, gives the party an intrinsic advantage over rivals. “Even when narratives shift, numbers don’t. In Budgam, that arithmetic still tilts toward NC,” one veteran observer remarked.

With the NC–Congress alliance intact, party insiders say coordination between the two partners will be “seamless.” Meanwhile, Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference, which is exploring alliances with Jamaat-e-Islami backed candidates, is expected to make “visible but not decisive” inroads in north and central Kashmir.

Analysts caution that a fragmented opposition vote could further strengthen NC’s prospects in Budgam.

“Unless a major alliance forms around PDP or an independent with a strong community backing enters, the contest appears NC’s to lose,” a senior journalist based in Srinagar told The Kashmiriyat.

Beyond Budgam, discussions continue over three upcoming Rajya Sabha seats, where NC is expected to assert its weight through figures like Chowdhary Ramzan, Sajad Kichloo, Aga Mehmood, and Shammi Oberoi.

Political watchers say the outcome of the Budgam by-poll could influence those internal calculations. A strong NC showing, especially under Aga Mehmood, would reaffirm the party’s continuing relevance and its ability to convert legacy into victory even in a changed post-Article 370 landscape.