Suhail Dar
Omar Abdullah of the Jammu Kashmir National Conference last week waved to the massive crowds of Devsar block asking people to vote for the party candidate Feroz Ahmed Shah, however, all is not well within the National Conference in the Devsar segment.
“The National Conference may win the Devsar seat, driven by anti-incumbency and growing support for their stance post-abrogation, but internal issues persist,” a source within the party revealed. “They need to put their house in order.”
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One of the few seats facing tough competition in South Kashmir during the first phase of elections will be the Devsar Assembly segment in Kulgam district. The margin of victory is expected to be narrow.
In the 40-Devsar Assembly constituency, which goes to polls on September 18 during the first phase, a total of 1,12,381 voters are registered, comprising 56,199 males, 56,175 females, and 7 transgender voters. To accommodate the electorate, 127 polling stations have been set up across the constituency.
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The Devsar Assembly seat has historically been a competitive political landscape, with various parties holding sway at different points in time. Since 1962, the National Conference (NC), Indian National Congress (INC), and the Jammu Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have alternated control, reflecting shifting voter preferences.
The NC had an early hold on Devsar. Abdul Aziz Zargar’s victory in 1962, followed by Ghulam Nabi Kochak’s in 1977, showcased NC’s dominance, particularly during periods of political consolidation. However, the party faced challenges as other contenders gained ground.
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The rise of the INC in Devsar is notable, with wins in 1967 and 2014. Manohar Nath Kaul’s victory in 1967 interrupted NC’s dominance, reflecting an early crack in the party’s monopoly over the region. Similarly, Mohammad Amin Bhat’s win in 2014 showed that Congress could still pose a significant challenge, despite the emergence of new political players like the PDP.
The PDP, led by Mohmad Sartaj Madni’s victory in 2002, introduced a new dynamic in Devsar’s politics. The party’s appeal in the early 2000s stemmed from its positioning as a regional alternative to the NC, especially during a time of political change in Kashmir. Madni’s win reflected a shift in voter sentiment towards more localized, issue-driven politics, particularly in South Kashmir.
In the current context, both the NC and PDP are poised for a tough contest, especially in the post-abrogation political climate. The NC, while historically strong, faces challenges from internal issues, as well as from the PDP, which has maintained a presence in south Kashmir. “Things, however, may not be as black and white. The Jamaat-e-Islami, which previously supported the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), has fielded its own candidate from the Devsar Assembly segment, likely shifting votes in Jamaat’s favor, which could give an edge to the National Conference (NC). But it’s not that simple,” said Shahid Shah, a research scholar from Yaripora in Kulgam. “Parts of Quimoh, including Matalhama—added after delimitation—are traditionally strong NC areas, but they may see a significant reduction in votes as the independent candidate, Dr. Abdul Bari Naik’s brother, is expected to cut into the NC vote by a large margin.”
In an absurd situation like this, who is likely to benefit? With the vote fragmented between the Jamaat-e-Islami, PDP, NC, and an independent candidate, it’s difficult to predict. The splintering of traditional party bases could create an opening for any candidate who manages to consolidate support in key areas, potentially turning the race into a tight, unpredictable contest.
History and Present
The Devsar Assembly seat in Kulgam district of south Kashmir has seen a diverse range of political representation since 1962. Abdul Aziz Zargar of the Jammu Kashmir National Conference (NC-Bakshi led) won the inaugural election in 1962. In 1967, Manohar Nath Kaul of the Indian National Congress (INC) claimed the seat, followed by Ghulam Hassan Parry, an Independent candidate, in 1972.
The NC regained control in 1977 with Ghulam Nabi Kochak’s victory. Ghulam Ahmad Shah and Peerzada Ghulam Ahmad held the seat for NC in the subsequent elections of 1983 and 1987, respectively. After a gap, the seat was won by Mohmad Sartaj Madni of the Jammu Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2002 ad 2008, and in 2014, Mohammad Amin Bhat of the INC secured the position, marking a return for the Congress party.
Currently, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference has two DDC members from the Devsar constituency, the PDP has one, Apni Party and Congress all have have one.
In the 2014 Assembly elections for Devsar, Mohammad Amin Bhat of the Indian National Congress (INC) secured 20,162 votes, representing 35.1% of the total votes cast. Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), garnered 18,651 votes, or 32.5% while Jammu Kashmir National Conference (NC) candidate, Peerzada Ghulam Ahmad, secured the third position with 11,585 votes underscoring a competitive race, with the INC narrowly leading over the PDP in a closely contested battle.
“Mohammed Amin Bhat, a strong and well-connected candidate for the seat, could have easily secured a victory in the pre-abrogation period. However, as a member of the Azad-led DPAP, which is currently unpopular, this affiliation is likely to significantly impact his chances,” said Shahid. “This factor is expected to cause him a heavy dent.”
“Though Sartaj Madani is a prominent leader, the Jamaat-e-Islami, which previously covertly supported the PDP, has now fielded its own candidate, Nazir Ahmed Bhat, for the Devsar seat. This move is expected to negatively impact the PDP’s prospects, not just in Devsar, but across several other constituencies as well,” he told The Kashmiriyat.
He said that the most interesting case is that of the National Conference. “It has two DDC members and a vast support, but the two DDC members have not so far expressed support for the NC candidate. In fact, the party’s DDC member from Quimoh Roomi Jan’s husband filed nomination for the seat as an independent candidate for the seat, he later withdrew and party’s Devsar A DDC member, Ishtiyaq Ganie is also upset with the party for not have receiving the assembly mandate, said Shahid.
“Other than the friendly contest with Amanullah Matoo of Indian National Congress, Independent candidates are also expected to cut into the votes of JKNC in their traditional strongholds; including Ashmuji, Nowpora,” Shahid opined.
An interesting development is that DDC member Riyaz Ahmed Bhat, of the Apni Party, now in fray for assembly seat, has conducted an extensive door-to-door campaign covering 285 kilometers within Devsar, reaching approximately 7,000 households. “He got the highest votes in DDC elections, and may very well turn out to be dark horse in Devsar. Campaigning on grassroot issues and reiterating that he is from a poor family, his campaign has evoked a positive response so far,” said Shahid.
Kund, Kelam, Manigam, Sopat, Nowpora-Akhran, and Matalhama in the Quimoh area are key regions within the Devsar block. Each of these areas may face distinct issues and political alignments, reflecting the diverse concerns and dynamics that could influence the electoral outcomes in this constituency.
In a contest where everyone claims to have an edge, the only clear prediction is that nothing is certain. With the NC trying to put its house in order, PDP struggling to retain its loyalists, and Jamaat stepping out of the shadows, Devsar seems less like a political battleground and more like a chessboard where every piece is trying to checkmate the other. In the end, the voters of Devsar might have the last laugh—if they can figure out whom to laugh at!