As India continues to witness a abrupt rise in COVID cases and oxygen shortage, mostly in New Delhi, a mathematical model prepared by advisers to Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi suggests coronavirus outbreak in India could peak in the coming days.
The team’s most recent prediction puts them more in line with at least some other scientists, who have suggested a mid-May peak for India.
India reported over four lakh COVID cases in the last 24 hours, with experts saying that the reported figures likely underplay the real toll because the country’s crematoriums and hospitals have been overwhelmed. That makes the assessment of any peak particularly complicated.
Reports suggest that estimates may become crucial because Modi has been avoiding a national lockdown, instead choose allowing states to implement their own restrictions to curb the spread.
“Our predictions are that the peak will come within a few days,” Mathukumalli Vidyasagar , professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in Hyderabad, said by email on Thursday, referring to a model prepared with Manindra Agrawal, a professor from IIT Kanpur. “As per current projections, we should hit 20,000 cases per day by the end of June. We will revise this as needed,” NDTV reported.
In April, Vidyasagar’s team wrongly predicted that the wave would peak by the middle of last month. That was due to incorrect parameters as “the pandemic was changing rapidly, even wildly, until about a week ago,” he wrote on Twitter at the time.
To a large extent scientists agreed that coming few weeks will be difficult for India.
Infections have surged by more than 300,000 cases for 15 straight days, pushing India’s total tally past 21 million. Some experts blame the sudden surge of India’s second wave on a new variant that has emerged in the country.
A team at the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore used a mathematical model to predict about 404,000 deaths will occur by June 11 if current situation continues. India’s death toll from the pandemic has already crossed 200,000, the report said.