Shah Basit/ Meer Irfan
In the Hydergund area of Shopian, Abdul Gaffar Khan gazes over his apple orchard, noting the reduced yield this season. “We desperately need a good snowfall this winter,” he says. “Without it, our orchards and livelihoods won’t survive another year like this.”
This sentiment echoes across Kashmir, where farming and horticulture depend heavily on a consistent winter snowfall to rejuvenate water resources and ensure agricultural sustainability.
Agriculture and horticulture are pillars of the Kashmir Valley’s economy, employing 70 per cent of its population directly or indirectly.
Apple farming alone contributes about ₹10,000 crores annually, accounting for nearly 8 per cent of the region’s GDP. The sector supports approximately 3.5 million people, providing jobs and sustenance to the valley’s rural population. However, changing climatic patterns are increasingly threatening this economic backbone.
Kashmir’s agricultural economy is predominantly driven by its apple industry, with certain districts producing the finest varieties.
Shopian, Pulwama, and Anantnag are renowned for their high-quality apples, particularly the Red Delicious, Golden Delicious, and the Kulu varieties, which are prized for their crispness, color, and taste.
In 2023, Kashmir produced over 20 lakh metric tonnes of apples, making it one of the largest apple-producing regions in India.
Beyond apples, the valley is also known for its diverse crops.
The fertile lands of Kashmir support the growth of vegetables like carrots, peas, tomatoes, cauliflower, and Haakh (collard greens). Saffron, a high-value crop, thrives in the region, particularly in Pampore, while other staple crops like rice and wheat are cultivated in large quantities in areas like Srinagar and Pulwama.
However, this season, the warm, dry conditions have taken a heavy toll on vegetable crops.
“Haakh, which is a staple in every Kashmiri household, has burned in the heat this season,” says Shabir Ahmad, a farmer from Anantnag.
“The leaves are yellow, and the usual lush greenery has turned to dust. We depend on these greens for sustenance through the winter, but this year, the crop has barely survived.”
Saffron, too, has been affected, with many farmers reporting a decline in yield due to irregular rainfall patterns and unseasonably high temperatures.
The changing climate is squeezing farmers who rely on these crops for their livelihood, with losses mounting in the wake of the poor weather.
Last Year’s Dry Spell
The 2023 winter witnessed an alarming 79 per cent rainfall deficit during Chillai Kalan, Kashmir’s harshest 40-day winter period, which traditionally supplies critical snowfall.
This dearth of precipitation had far-reaching consequences. Srinagar faced a historic water crisis, with key reservoirs running dry and municipal supplies disrupted for months.
Bashir Ahmad, a 55-year-old farmer from Baramulla, recalls, “Our irrigation channels were bone dry, and many of us couldn’t even water our fields properly.”
Official data revealed water levels in the Jhelum River fell to alarming lows, triggering concerns among environmentalists and policymakers alike.
Sanjeev Malhotra, Chief Engineer of the Jal Shakti Department, explained, “The absence of snowfall not only affects current irrigation cycles but also reduces groundwater recharge, exacerbating long-term water shortages.”
The apple industry, which relies heavily on winter chill hours to regulate flowering cycles, bore the brunt of these changes. Production dropped by approximately 25 per cent, with fruit size and quality also deteriorating. “The trees are stressed, and so are we,” said Tariq Lone, an orchardist in Pulwama. “We lost lakhs in revenue last year because of poor yields.”
The dry conditions also disrupted traditional farming practices. Wheat and paddy fields, requiring consistent irrigation, showed poor germination rates.
Irfan Rashid, a geoinformatics expert, highlighted, “The lack of snow accelerates glacier melt, disrupts river flows, and poses a grave threat to biodiversity and human livelihoods. Every missing winter compounds the long-term damage.”
Adding to the crisis, horticulturists saw input costs, such as fertilizers and pesticides, skyrocket due to declining productivity. Livestock owners struggled to feed their animals as pasturelands shrank under prolonged drought conditions.
In 2024, Kashmir also experienced significant disruptions in its electricity production, with power cuts worsening over the year.
The region’s industrial sector bore the brunt, facing a 65% drop in production due to frequent power outages, which were exacerbated by insufficient power supply.
The cold storage, apple grading, packaging, and furniture industries were particularly affected, as many of these operations rely on consistent electricity to power automated machinery.
The ongoing power crisis not only escalated operational costs—forcing businesses to rely on costly generators—but also hindered the region’s broader economic activities, including tourism.
Expectations and Resilience
As the winter season approaches, hope cautiously returns to the valley. Meteorologists predict an easing of the El Niño phenomenon, which had intensified dry conditions last year.
The Indian Meteorological Department has stated, “While this winter may not fully compensate for the deficits of the past, signs are more encouraging for snowfall and rain. It is critical that we prepare for fluctuations.”
Communities are doing their part to adapt. Farmers are increasingly adopting water-saving techniques like drip irrigation and organic mulching to retain soil moisture.
However, experts argue that piecemeal solutions won’t be enough to address systemic issues.
Aijaz Dar, an agronomist, warns, “We need comprehensive policies to manage water resources, expand rainwater harvesting, and promote climate-resilient crops to safeguard Kashmir’s agricultural future.”
The government has also begun promoting cold-storage facilities and subsidies for orchardists, aiming to reduce post-harvest losses and stabilize incomes.
Bashir Ahmad from Baramulla, however, remains skeptical: “These measures are helpful, but they won’t matter if there’s no water. Everything starts with snowfall.”
Despite the challenges, the people of Kashmir remain hopeful. A good winter could replenish water bodies, restore agricultural cycles, and ease economic hardships.
Abdul Gaffar Khan sums it up best: “Snow is life for us. When it falls, we know the year will be kinder, and so will our orchards.”