Addressing a public rally in Kunzer Tangmarg, Omar Abdullah invoked his grandfather’s legacy and spoke about his ‘Land to Tiller’ Policy that gave land proprietorship back to Kashmiri Muslims, centuries after Maharaja Gulab Singh confiscated all private ownership rights on the land in Jammu Kashmir.
In this rare display, the Jammu Kashmir National Conference ((NC) Vice President, Omar Abdullah aimed to bring his party cadre together to vote for the region’s oldest party in Baramulla Lok Sabha seat which looks poised for a major electoral battle.
Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency will go to polls in Phase 5 of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, taking place on Monday, May 20, 2024, with the vote count slated for Tuesday, June 4, 2024. In the 2019 Lok Sabha general elections, Mohammed Akbar Lone of NC won the seat with a margin of over 30,000 votes against the closest rival Raja Aijaz Ali of Sajad Lone led People’s Conference while Engineer Rashid stood third.
In 2019, the seat was a combination of a total of 15 assembly segments, however, the Delimitation Commission formed by the central government added a total of 18 assembly constituencies to the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat.
The National Conference has nominated former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah as its candidate, while Sajad Lone, a former minister in the BJP-PDP coalition government, is running on the Peoples Conference ticket. Fayaz Mir has been named as the candidate for the Peoples Democratic Party. Initially perceived as a contest between Abdullah and Lone, the political dynamics in Kashmir have become even more uncertain with the entry of jailed leader Engineer Rasheed, who is running as an Independent.
Rashid’s Entry
The campaigning for Baramulla heated up after the nomination form of Engineer Rashid was submitted by the son of at the office of the Returning Officer of Baramulla electoral constituency.
Along with former Member of legislative Assembly and leader of Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic progressive Azad party Shoaib Nabi lone, and District development council member from Mawar Kupwara, Khursheed Ahmad Dar, the son of jailed leader, Abrar Rashid kickstarted Rashid’s campaign.
Abrar with the slogan “Jail ka Badla vote se” (Answer to their jail is our vote), has started his campaigning for his father seen promising people that if they are elected to power they will make sure the voice of political prisoners will be taken to the India Parliament.
Political analysts believe that the campaign would deeply impact the chances of National conference and People’s Conference as people have started connecting emotionally with the Rashid’s campaign.
Along with the huge public participation, prominent activists and different groups including the suspended Kashmir university professor Dr Abdul Bari Naik from South Kashmir, social activist Adil Nazir, DDC Sangrama Irfan Hafiz lone, former MLA and DPAP leader Shoaib lone, Sikh activist Angad Singh Khalsa and various advocates from Baramulla in a presser pledged their support to Rashid.
Engineer Rashid’s campaign is also dominating major space on social media sites especially Facebook and Whatsapp, however, what impact will it have on the numbers is something only time will tell.
The Number Game
Rashid, has received a great response in district Bandipora in last two days which is considered a strong hold of National Conference as former Member parliament Mohammed Akbar Lone also hails from district Bandipora.
During the last election, Engineer Rashid bagged more votes from Baramulla than his own belts in Kupwara district.
During the 2019 elections, one significant aspect was the internal strife within the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) for the north Kashmir seat, previously held by Muzaffar Beg of the PDP in 2014. PDP members openly defied Sajad Lone, whom they accused of attempting to form a government with the BJP after the extreme right-wing party withdrew its support from the coalition government with the PDP. Engineer Rashid received a healthy number of votes in belts like Sangrama, Tangmarg, Baramulla, Rafiabad, and Uri, not in Kupwara, where Sajad Lone enjoys good support.
In addition to the PDP, Ghulam Hasan Mir, the chief of the Democratic Party, openly expressed support for Rashid, resulting in a significant number of votes from the Tangmarg Belt for the Engineer. However, in this election, Mir is now affiliated with the Jammu Kashmir Apni Party, which has already thrown its support behind Sajad Lone.
The majority of PDP leaders, who in the last election opted to support Er Rasheed over their party candidate Abdul Qayoom Wani, have now aligned with Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party. This move has given Sajad Lone an advantage, given the open backing from the Apni Party.
However, Basharat Bukhari, who switched allegiance from one party to another, stands in support of Omar Abdullah. Notably, Bukhari holds significant influence in the Sangrama segment. Yet, the endorsement from Muzaffar Hussain Beigh and his spouse Safina Beigh for Sajad Lone could potentially alter the political landscape.
The Jammu Kashmir National Conference is backing on the support of its key leaders, including Member of Parliament Muhammad Akbar Lone, Aga Ruhullah Mehdi, Choudhary Mohammad Ramzan, and others to bolster its vote bank.
One key area to watch is the Pattan belt, where Imran Reza Ansari of the People’s Conference and Aga Ruhullah both enjoy a good support. A family bastion to both Ansari and Aga’s, powerful Shia community families, will be battling to have the maximum influence to put weight behind their leaders.
In Hajin, the National Conference’s vote bank might face challenges due to various factors. These include local political activist Imtiyaz Parray’s support for Sajad Lone and the consistent rallies held by Engineer Rashid’s son, both of which could potentially sway voter sentiments.
At Beerwah things do not look that easy either for the National conference. The declaration of open support by DDC Chairman Nazir Khan, who narrowly lost to Omar Abdullah in the 2014 Assembly elections, has already been made in favor of Sajad Lone.
While Sajad Lone is relying on both minor and major coalitions, Engineer Rashid is banking on public rallies. On the other hand, the National Conference boasts a dedicated cadre across all assembly segments, possibly numbering up to 10,000 in several segments. These supporters have consistently participated in elections and have never hesitated to vote for “Sheikh Abdullah’s party” silently.
At the end, it’s the voter, not the one who chants slogans in a rally, who determines the fate of the candidate. The battle surely is fierce and intriguing.