Exit poll results are out for seven phased general elections in India with most of them predicting a comfortable return of Narendra Modi to the country’s highest post of Prime Minister for the third time.
Though a few pollsters have shown that the INDIA alliance may comfortably win the majority, most exit polls are bent in favour of the Bhartiya Janta Party-led National Democratic Alliance, but exit polls are a mere prediction, the accuracy of which will only be tested on June 4, when the vote count will begin.
General elections were held in India from April 19 to June 1, 2024, across seven phases to elect all 543 members of the Lok Sabha. The votes will be counted, and the results will be declared on June 4, 2024.
The election is being fought between two major alliances, one led by BJP and the other led by Congress. The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A), a broad coalition of multiple political parties in India, spearheaded by the country’s largest opposition party, the Indian National Congress. This alliance opposes the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in the 2024 Indian general elections.
Many exit polls suggest a tight race in key battleground states, highlighting regional dynamics that could play a crucial role in the final outcome. Analysts note that while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has a strong presence in urban areas, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) seems to have made significant inroads in rural regions and among minority communities.
These local factors, combined with the varied campaign strategies employed by both alliances, add an extra layer of complexity to the election results. Voters have expressed mixed sentiments on issues such as economic reforms, social policies, and governance, reflecting the diverse and multifaceted political landscape of India.
Ahead of the counting day, betting markets and TV channels are abuzz with exit polls, attracting millions of viewers. Although exit polls have been notoriously inaccurate in the past, this year they are also marred by evident mathematical flaws that we have easily identified.
Here is a list of the mathematical errors in some of the polls:
News 24 exit poll Today’s Chanakya predicted 33 seats for the BJP led alliance NDA wining 33 seats in Rajasthan. The state has only 24 Lok Sabha seats.
Zee News exit poll predicted a total of 13 seats for Congress in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, when it is merely contesting on nine. Similarly, India Today’s exit poll has given 4-6 seats for Bihar based LJP in Bihar when it has merely contested five Lok Sabha seats.
Zee News has given 16-19 seats to NDA, when the total number of seats in Haryana in nine. The pollster has also given 2-4 seats to INDIA alliance in the state. In Himachal Pradesh, with a total of 4 Lok Sabha seats, Zee News exit poll ha predicted 6-8 seats for NDA.