Massive preparations are underway for the upcoming assembly elections in Jammu Kashmir due in 2018 when the last elected government collapsed after Bhartiya Janta Party parted ways with their then coalition partner, the People’s Democratic Party.
Sources privy to the information said that revenue officials along with other government officials are working tiresome schedules towards the preparation of electoral roles in Jammu Kashmir. A draft electoral roll will be published on September 15. Post which, camps will be organized during the summary revision across Jammu Kashmir from September 15 to 25 October, where people can register themselves as voters. The publication of the finalized electoral rolls in J-K, as per officials, will be released by November 25.
The Kashmiriyat learned from informed sources that the elections would be conducted towards the end of this year and may conclude by January, next year. For the same, the Union Ministry will soon announce the decision. “Later this month, probably,” they said, however, it is also possible that parties in Kashmir may get less time to prepare for elections with the intent the announcement can be dragged a little further.
Meanwhile, rumours have hit the ground regarding the announcement of elections during Amit Shah’s visit to Jammu Kashmir. The Union Home Minister will travel to Jammu Kashmir for the second time this year in September. Shah is expected to visit border areas and review development work. It is also expected that his visit gains political significance and that Jammu Kashmir will likely have an election immediately after the announcement of the final electoral rolls on November 25.
The BJP Jammu Kashmir unit has said that during his two-day visit, Amit Shah will address political rallies in north Kashmir and also in the Jammu region. “During his visit, Shah might make the announcement for elections by the end of this year or the month of January, next year. There are a lot of rumours around. A lot of people are saying Amit Shah may make the surprising decision. He might announce it in December also. The BJP’s big two never reveal anything,” a source told The Kashmiriyat.
The Azad factor
The Bhartiya Janta Party, analysts believe, has started preparing for elections months back. In their long preparations for the assembly elections in Jammu Kashmir, the BJP had announced that seventy union ministers of the party will visit Jammu Kashmir between September 09-October 05, last year. There have been alliances, some hidden, many open taking place. Many under pressure, a few by conviction.
The National Conference – the region’s oldest political party, which actually came into being in 1931 and was rechristened in 1939 has been using various Indian news channels’ platforms to speak against the Modi Government’s decision of August 05. However, the party has confined itself to the newsrooms of posh media houses and the efforts on the ground remain almost insignificant, analysts say.
In the recent months, several leaders of Kashmir based political parties have switched sides. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has lost its loyalists to the newly created Jammu Kashmir Apni Party and Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference while the National Conference faced a major setback when Ravinder Rana, its Jammu chief quit the party to join the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP).
Ever since the last elected government in Jammu Kashmir fell, the PDP has suffered one blow after another. Dozens of people have left the party. Its youth leader Waheed u Rehman Parra was arrested by the National Investigating Agency to be released only after several months. Waheed’s arrest caused a major blow to the party. Waheed’s arrest also caused a fear among the young cadre of the Mehbooba Mufti led party.
The BJP has been working to make its ground firm in the valley. However, little seems to have worked. In a secret survey conducted by the Government, the BJP is making no major gains and is placed around 24 seats out of the 90. The National Conference is placed at over twenty seats and Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference was given over 4 to 6 seats.
With Azad’s exit from the INC and entry into J-K political theatre with a new political party, a lot of churning has been witnessed in parties other than the Congress, too. In the coming two months, the parties will be more or less settled and sure about their cadres – the hopping of leaders is expected to end in the next 6 to 8 weeks. People’s Democratic Party is placed at around 4-7 seats. Apni Party, as per the secret poll, is not getting more than two seats.
“Kashmiris believed that there is some sort of behind the scenes understanding between the Apni Party and BJP, so its unlikely that they may step beyond a seat or two. Azad’s exit from the Congress seems to have come in the aftermath of the poll and may make an impact in the upcoming polls,” an observer monitoring elections since 1996 told The Kashmiriyat, on condition of anonymity.
Since Azad’s exit from Congress and his indication to form a new party, the Kashmir-based parties have felt jittery. Altaf Bukhari who heads the Apni Party, has hit out at Azad more than once, also calling him an ‘agent’ of the BJP. Bukhari’s party seems to be more vulnerable given that most of the leaders come from a broken PDP and other parties. In fact, several of his party members have already quit the party and announced that they’re joining Azad’s new political party.
He said that some leaders in Apni Party will try to switch to Azad camp since he is a bigger and recognisable leader at national level. “Azad has been in public life for five decades and it is said he has friends across all the parties. PM Modi and Azad, as was seen in Parliament when Azad exited from Rajhya Sabha, get along very well. The duo have praised each other a few times publicly. In contrast, Bukhari is lesser known and if the recent secret poll survey is any indication, he does not show promise. Infact sources say his seat count in the survey is dismal. And that could lead many ‘freelancers’ to switch to Azad’s side,” he told The Kashmiriyat.
PAGD- The largest front and its emerging cracks
The secret poll conducted by Government gives a clear majority to People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration, created in the aftermath of August 05 decision to fight for the restoration of the special status of Jammu Kashmir. In fact the survey gives over 80 per cent of the seats to PAGD in Kashmir and the Chenab valley. However, it will make no major impact in the Jammu region, the poll hints.
But not everything is fine within the PAGD. During a recent meeting, the provincial presidents of National Conference unanimously submitted a resolution to the party president, Dr. Farooq Abdullah, to contest the upcoming assembly polls, individually. Dr. Farooq Abdullah responding to this said that the party will make a decision on the resolution and that the PAGD will not cease to exist. The resolution came barely weeks after the NC president who also heads the PAGD had announced that PAGD will contest the polls as a single front.
According to PAGD insiders, the amalgam has developed cracks over seat sharing. According to Ifra Jan, a spokesperson for the National Conference, there is a lot of rumour mongering going on on the ground. She remarked, implying that splits have formed inside the PAGD, “The unity of the parties within the PAGD will be primarily the responsibility of all constituents. There should be no public debates between candidates.” She also stated that the National Conference’s Working Committee has proposed that elections be held jointly, but “no final decision has been taken as of yet,” she told The Kashmiriyat.
She also stated that the National Conference is unaware of any ‘secret’ polls being undertaken. She noted that, as mentioned by the Party President, the National Conference will make a speedy decision on the recommendation. “It is time for the people of Jammu Kashmir to rise up to the infringement of their rights and join the political parties willing to fight for them. It could be a case of now or never for us,” she stated.
People’s Democratic Party Spokesperson, Najm u Saqib, stated that the PAGD was formed with the greater goal of restoring the rights of the people of Jammu Kashmir in mind. He stated that people’s hopes are linked to the amalgam. “People on the ground believe that PAGD is a structure that can serve as a bulwark against the formidable theft of Jammu Kashmir’s rights.”
“According to ground level workers, the people of Jammu Kashmir do not want a fragmented mandate and instead want the alliance parties to work together to restore the rights of the people of Jammu Kashmir.” Saqib told The Kashmiriyat.
Post abrogation, a clear division is visible in Jammu Kashmir’s political spectrum between those who want to fight the abrogation and those who have accepted defeat on the August 05 decision.
The politics on the ground is not black and white. As the BJP attempts to expand its influence, it was hoped by many that politicians in Kashmir would set aside their differences.