A recent Reuters report about the analysis by a German researcher states that the birth control policies imposed by China could cut between 2.6 to 4.5 million births of the Uyghur and other ethnic minorities in Southern Xinjiang within the coming 20 years. This makes about a third of the region’s projected minority.
The research report by Adrian Zenz, which is yet to be published, also includes a previously unreported cache of research produced by Chinese academics and officials on Beijing’s intent behind the birth control policies in Xinjiang. The official data in this research shows that birth rates have already dropped by 48.7% between the years 2017 and 2019.
Some western countries have adamantly pushed the need to investigate China’s actions in Xinjiang. These countries have called to investigate whether Chinese actions are genocidal, but China has continuously denied these allegations.
The Reuters report claims that Zenz’s research is the first such peer-reviewed analysis of the long-term population impact of Beijing’s multi-year crackdown in the western region. Various Rights groups, researchers and some residents say that these policies include newly enforced birth limits on Uyghur and other mainly Muslim ethnic minorities, the transfers of workers to other regions and the internment of an estimated one million Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in a network of camps.
“This (research and analysis) really shows the intent behind the Chinese government’s long-term plan for the Uyghur population,” Zenz said.
Although, the Chinese government has not made public any official target for reducing the proportion of Uyghur and other ethnic minorities in Xinjiang. But based on analysis of official birth data, demographic projections and ethnic ratios proposed by Chinese academics and officials, Zenz makes and estimate that these policies could increase the predominant Han Chinese population in the region from 8.4% (currently) to 25%.
“This goal is only achievable if they do what they have been doing, which is drastically suppressing (Uyghur) birth rates,” Zenz said.
About the drop in ethnic minority birth rates, China has said in the past that it is due to the full implementation of the region’s existing birth quotas as well as development factors. These development factors also include an increase in per capita income and wider access to family planning services.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry told Reuters in a statement, “The so-called ‘genocide’ in Xinjiang is pure nonsense. It is a manifestation of the ulterior motives of anti-China forces in the United States and the West and the manifestation of those who suffer from Sinophobia.”
The statement, further, said that the official data showing the decrease in Xinjiang birth rates between 2017 and 2019 “does not reflect the true situation” and that the Uyghur birth rates remain higher than Han ethnic people in Xinjiang.
This new research by Zenz compares a population projection done by Xinjiang-based researchers for the government-run Chinese Academy of Sciences based on data predating the crackdown, to official data on birth-rates and what Beijing describes as “population optimization” measures for Xinjiang’s ethnic minorities introduced since 2017.
The research found that the population of ethnic minorities in Uyghur-dominated southern Xinjiang would reach between 8.6-10.5 million by 2040, under the new birth prevention policies. That compares to 13.14 million projected by Chinese researchers using data pre-dating the implemented birth policies and a current population of around 9.47 million.
Zenz is an independent researcher with the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, a bipartisan non-profit based in Washington, D.C. He has previously been condemned by Beijing for his research which has been critical of China’s policies on detaining Uyghurs, mass labour transfers and birth reduction in Xinjiang.
China’s foreign ministry has accused Zenz of “misleading” people with data and, in response to Reuters’ questions, said “his lies aren’t worth refuting.”
Zenz’s research was accepted for publication by the Central Asian Survey, a quarterly academic journal, after peer review on June 3. The report says that Reuters shared the research and methodology with more than a dozen experts in population analysis, birth prevention policies and international human rights law, who said the analysis and conclusions were sound.
Although, some of the experts cautioned that demographic projections over a period of decades can be affected by unforeseen factors. The Xinjiang government has not publicly set official ethnic quota or population size goals for ethnic populations in Southern Xinjiang, and quotas used in the analysis are based on proposed figures from Chinese officials and academics.
China’s move to prevent births among the minorities, including the Uyghurs stands in sharp contrast with it’s wider birth policies. China had announced the last week that married couples can have three children, up from two, the largest such policy shift since the one child policy was scrapped in 2016 in response to China’s rapidly ageing population. And the announcement contained no reference to any specific ethnic groups.
Earlier, the policy limited all the majority and minority groups to two children, and three in the rural areas. However, the Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities had historically been partially excluded from those birth limits as part of preferential policies designed to benefit the minority communities.
Various researchers and rights groups claim that these new policy disproportionately impact the muslim minorities, because they face detention for exceeding the birth quotas while the others face fines.
In a Communist Party record leaked in 2020, also reported by Zenz, a re-education camp in southern Xinjiang’s Karakax county listed birth violations as the reason for internment in 149 cases out of 484 detailed in the list. China has called the list a “fabrication”.
A health expert claimed that birth quotas for ethnic minorities have become strictly enforced in Xinjiang since 2017, including the separation of married couples, and the use of sterilisation procedures, intrauterine devices (IUDs) and abortions.
Two of the Uyghur people said they had direct family members who were detained for having too many children. Reuters could not independently verify the detentions.
“It is not up to choice,” said the official, based in southern Xinjiang, who asked not to be named because they fear reprisals from the local government. “All Uyghurs must comply… it is an urgent task.”
Reuters claim that the Xinjiang government did not respond to a request for comment about whether birth limits are more strictly enforced against Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities. Xinjiang officials have previously said all procedures are voluntary.
Still, in Xinjiang counties where Uyghurs are the majority ethnic group, birth rates dropped 50.1% in 2019, for example, compared to a 19.7% drop in majority ethnic Han counties, according to official data compiled by Zenz.
Zenz’s report says analyses published by state funded academics and officials between 2014 and 2020 show the strict implementation of the policies are driven by national security concerns, and are motivated by a desire to dilute the Uyghur population, increase Han migration and boost loyalty to the ruling Communist Party.
15 documents created by state funded academics and officials showcased in the Zenz report include comments from Xinjiang officials and state-affiliated academics referencing the need to increase the proportion of Han residents and decrease the ratio of Uyghurs or described the high concentration of Uyghurs as a threat to social stability.
“The problem in southern Xinjiang is mainly the unbalanced population structure … the proportion of the Han population is too low,” Liu Yilei, an academic and the deputy secretary general of the Communist Party committee of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, a government body with administrative authority in the region, told a July 2020 symposium, published on the Xinjiang University website.
The report presented by Zenz and other experts point to the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, which lists birth prevention targeting an ethnic group as one act that could qualify as genocide.
Various western countries including the United States, Britain and Canada have described China’s birth prevention and mass detention policies in Xinjiang as genocide.
Although, some academics and politicians have speculations about these claims, because they say there is insufficient evidence of intent by Beijing to destroy an ethnic population in part or full to meet the threshold for a genocide determination.
The lack of evidence is the reason that no such formal criminal charges have been laid against Chinese or Xinjiang officials. Prosecuting officials would also be complex and require a high bar of proof. The report concluded on the note that China is not party to the International Criminal Court (ICC), the top international court that prosecutes genocide and other serious crimes, and which can only bring action against states within its jurisdiction.