Exit polls, many of which are still in the process of being announced , appear to predict a win for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the general election across India. Most polls predict that the NDA will win more than 350 seats.
The Lok Sabha elections, which began on April 19, ended earlier on Saturday (June 01). Exit polls are conducted after the ban lifts on such surveys and depend on voters’ accounts.
According to numbers put out by NDTV after a ‘poll of polls’ counting, the NDA is likely to win 365 seats, while the INDIA alliance 142, and others 36.
Looking at the recent history of the exit polls conducted in India, there have been several notable instances where exit polls have been wildly off the mark, resulting in major surprises when the actual election results were announced. Here are five key examples of such instances:
1) Bihar Assembly Elections 2015: Most exit polls failed to predict the overwhelming victory of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (United) (JDU), and Congress coalition. Many pollsters anticipated a close contest with a tilt towards the BJP. However, the Grand Alliance secured a decisive win with 178 out of the 243 seats in the state.
2) West Bengal Assembly Elections 2021: Prominent exit poll surveys, including those by India Today’s Axis My India and Republic-CNX, had forecasted the BJP leading in the Assembly elections. Contrary to these predictions, the BJP won only 77 seats, while Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress achieved a commanding victory with 213 seats out of the total 294.
3) Uttar Pradesh Assembly Polls 2017: Most pollsters predicted a hung assembly in Uttar Pradesh during the 2017 Assembly elections, although they acknowledged the BJP as the largest party. In a surprising turn of events, the BJP won a landslide victory, securing 312 out of the total 403 seats.
4) Bihar Assembly Elections 2020: In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the majority of exit polls forecasted a clear win for the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagatbandhan. However, it was the BJP-JD(U) alliance that ultimately emerged victorious.
5) Karnataka 2023 assembly elections:In 2023, Republic TV–P MARQ forecasted that Congress would secure 94–108 seats, the BJP would win 85–100 seats, and the JD(S) would capture 24-32 seats. However, the actual results saw Congress forming the government independently with 135 seats, while the BJP managed to win only 66 seats.
During 2004 Lok Sabha Poll, With Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s popularity at an all-time high, the government called for early Lok Sabha elections. The BJP, buoyed by its victories in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, was confident of success. Most exit polls predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP and its allies (NDA), estimating 240 to 275 seats. However, the actual results were quite different, with the National Democratic Alliance winning only 187 seats, while the Congress and its allies secured 216 seats.
Also noteworthy are the Delhi Assembly elections in 2015 and the 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly elections, where exit polls similarly missed the mark compared to the final outcomes.