On a chilly Sunday morning, February 13, 2022, eight out of ten security personnel stationed at the residence of Abdul Majeed Mir, former Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) of Jammu Kashmir, received sudden orders to vacate his premises. Mir’s security had been beefed up following attacks on his home in Achabal Anantnag by suspected militants in 2017 and 2018.
Mir expressed bewilderment at the downgrade in his security status, questioning the rationale behind it. “I reside among my people in a bustling locality, not in a fortified enclave,” he remarked, contrasting the treatment with what he perceives as leniency granted to government-affiliated figures that freely interact with the public. “On the other hand, the government’s created stooges are free to meet the public all seven days of the week. They are enjoying security and accommodation but the people are wise enough and they will decide their fate (during elections),” former MLA Shangus said.
Mir’s ordeal is reminiscent of numerous former members of the dissolved Jammu Kashmir Legislative Assembly, a consequence of an alleged Fax machine error by former Governor Satya Pal Malik in November 2018.
The disempowerment of Kashmiri political parties finds its roots in August 2019. A day after a meeting between Omar Abdullah and Farooq Abdullah of the Jammu Kashmir National Conference and Prime Minister Narendra Modi on August 4, 2019, a cloud of uncertainty enveloped the region. The speculation led to citizens flocking to oil and ration stations, anticipating an imminent change. National Conference leaders dispelled these rumors, only to witness a swift crackdown thereafter. On August 5, 2019, Article 370 was abrogated.
The subsequent imposition of a prolonged lockdown and communication blackout, along with the detention of three former chief ministers under the Public Safety Act, marked a seismic shift in the region’s political landscape. The dissolution of the BJP-People’s Democratic Party coalition in June 2018 preceded these events.
After the abrogation of Article 370, the BJP promptly initiated delimitation and announced that elections would be postponed until its completion. As politicians were gradually released from detention, speculation arose regarding their conditions of release. Initially, rumors suggested that politicians had agreed not to oppose the abrogation. However, leaders like Farooq Abdullah, Mehbooba Mufti, and Omar Abdullah swiftly refuted these claims, declaring the abrogation “unconstitutional” and vowing to reverse the decision of August 5, 2019.
While the Supreme Court of India has wrapped up the chapter on Article 370, at least for the time being, the political parties of Kashmir, once united under the banner of People’s Alliance for Gupak Declaration (PAGD), are now engaged in a skirmish of their own. They seem determined to topple each other from a chair that doesn’t even exist anymore.
With the assembly locked up tighter than a vault and its seats gathering dust faster than forgotten old books, the pro-establishment factions in Jammu Kashmir are already at each other’s throats like eager contenders in a chaotic game of musical chairs, but the Bhartiya Janta Party is on its toes preparing for elections.
Post abrogation, a clear division is visible in Jammu Kashmir’s political spectrum- those who want to fight the abrogation and the second – who accepted defeat on the August 05 decision.
The political landscape on the ground is nuanced and not black and white. While the BJP endeavors to broaden its influence, there was an expectation among many that politicians in Kashmir would set aside their differences. However, this reconciliation does not appear evident on the surface.
In anticipation of the upcoming elections in Jammu Kashmir, the BJP undertook comprehensive preparations, deploying a battalion of seventy union ministers from the party who visited the region. Amidst the political landscape, alliances have sprouted, some covertly and others overtly, with a mix of external pressure and genuine convictions guiding their formation. The BJP’s groundwork for the impending elections began more than three years ago, signifying the party’s strategic approach to the electoral battlefield.
In its latest bid to sway voters, the BJP pulled out all the stops, featuring Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressing a massive gathering in Srinagar.
The People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), an alliance established on August 4, 2019, with the aim of safeguarding Kashmir’s special status, has gradually gained prominence in public discourse. In the post-2019 Kashmir landscape, dominated by social media groups and Facebook news pages, the PAGD found a major space, due to the void left by the absence of political, social, and ideological representation. For ordinary Kashmiris, the PAGD initially served as a voice in the aftermath of the abrogation. However, cracks within the umbrella outfit have become more pronounced and widespread over time.
The unraveling of the PAGD began with the departure of Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference, citing a “breach of trust.” This rift emerged following seat-sharing disagreements during the 2021 DDC elections. The National Conference- the region’s oldest political party, which actually came into being in 1931 and was rechristened in 1939, has on a similar note said that it would go to elections “on its own” and “contest all seats” in Kashmir.
According to party insiders, senior leadership is adamant that the party “must not risk” its future by forming an alliance with the PDP or any other regional party. They believe that such alliances would jeopardize the party’s prospects and put its “future in jeopardy.”
Omar Abdullah, the vice president of the party, has recently expressed concerns about the leadership of the PDP publicly criticizing the National Conference. He highlighted instances where PDP leaders have written and spoken against the NC leadership in the public domain. The spokesperson of the National Conference further underscored these tensions by sharing screenshots on Twitter of various PDP leaders accusing the NC leadership.
“I regret that what we nurtured for five years has been shattered,” Mehbooba Mufti responded to the queries raised by Omar Abdullah. The former chief minister lamented that had the NC leadership discussed the issue with her, the PDP could have allowed the NC to contest all three seats in the valley.
“There used to be discussions on smaller issues within the PAGD, but the NC made such a decision without consulting us,” she remarked, adding that what the BJP couldn’t accomplish (breaking PAGD), has been achieved by a member of the alliance.
One of the screenshots shared by the NC leader depicts a tweet from a PDP leader concerning a statement made by GN Azad. In the statement, Azad mentioned that the JKNC had met with PM Modi multiple times to discuss forming an alliance with the BJP to govern the erstwhile state.
In recent months, a wave of defections has swept through Kashmir-based political parties. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has been the worst sufferers of these switches. The party has witnessed the departure of its loyalists to the newly formed Jammu Kashmir Apni Party and Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference.
Following the downfall of the last democratically elected government in Jammu Kashmir, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has been plagued by a series of setbacks. Numerous members have departed from the party, and its youth leader, Waheed u Rehman Parra, faced detention by the National Investigating Agency. Parra’s prolonged arrest dealt a significant blow to the party, instilling fear among the younger members of the Mehbooba Mufti-led faction.
The Anantnag-Rajouri seat, now including Rajouri, predominantly inhabited by the Gujjar-Bakerwal community, has become a focal point of contention. Both the National Conference and the PDP have support among tribal populations, with the younger generation leaning slightly towards the latter, while the National Conference will rely on figures like Mian Altaf to bolster their support base.
Saif u Din Soz, senior Kashmiri politician believes that the pro-establishment groups are caught in a tough struggle as they have become foes of Kashmiris and New Delhi too.
The trust deficit that the pro-establishment groups face in Kashmir is a long-old story, however, the dynamics shifted unfavorably for them after August 2019. The spokespersons and leaders of Kashmir-based political parties have become frequent targets in heated mainstream debates and face criticism from extremist Hindu nationalist groups on social media.
Experts suggest that the situation had begun to shift slightly in favor of the PAGD. “With no distinct voices on the ground and numerous parties attempting, albeit unsuccessfully, to fracture the alliance, the PAGD was gradually garnering credibility among Kashmiri masses. However, it seems that the future of their individual parties outweighs the collective future of Kashmir,” remarked an expert.
As one party grapples with the lingering specter of the BJP’s alliance from the recent past, and the other is consistently accused of harboring intentions to collaborate in the future, a slew of new players is emerging, predominantly in the valley. These nascent political entities are poised to play a significant role in shaping the political landscape.